The changing landscape of South Africa wine grape age distribution: Part one of five of a serialized report on old vines in South Africa

By Petri de Beer To ensure the sustainability and productivity of the wine industry, it is essential to maintain a robust core of healthy vines. However, the past decade has witnessed a significant shift in the age distribution of South African vineyards. The red wine boom of the early 2000s led to an extensive expansion and fervent planting activity within the industry, culminating in a peak of 102,146 hectares in 2006. Unfortunately, the global economic recession of 2007-2008 abruptly ended this growth phase in the South African wine sector. Since then, there has been a pronounced decline in the planting of new vineyards and, more concerningly, in the replacement of older vines that require renewal.

Conventional wisdom within the industry advocates for the replacement of wine grape vines at around 20 years age to maintain optimal production. As of 2024, the total vineyard area has decreased to 87,848 hectares, representing a loss of 14 298 hectares over 18 years. Projections suggest that this decline may stabilize at approximately 80,000 hectares although this is still up in the air whether it will be the floor for South African wine grape hectares. This trend implies that an increasing burden is being placed on older vines, many of which surpass the recommended 20-year replacement mark. These aging vines are now tasked with sustaining production levels to meet market demands in an increasingly competitive global wine market. So, what is the lay of the land currently and what is the industry to do about our current situation in the industry regarding an ageing vineyard distribution?

Age distribution in the rest of the world

The age distribution of the most prominent wine-producing countries in Europe in 2015, compared to South Africa in the same year, can be seen in (Graph 1). When examining the current age distribution of South African vines, it is evident that South Africa lags approximately a decade behind Europe in vineyard age distribution with South Africa’s current vineyard age distribution in line with Europe’s distribution in 2015.

Graph 1: Age distribution of vines of major European wine producing countries as compared to South Africa in 2015 (OIV)  

Since 2015, European wine grape vineyards have experienced significant changes in age distribution. Many traditional wine-growing regions have seen an increase in the proportion of older vines, maintained beyond the conventional economic lifespan. This shift is driven by reduced investments in new plantations, the adoption of sustainable farming practices, and economic incentives to produce premium wines from older vines.

The aging vineyard population has had a notable impact on the wine industry. Older vines are often associated with producing higher quality grapes, leading to wines with greater complexity and depth of flavor. It is claimed that the resilience of older vines has contributed to the stability of yields and the continued success of many European wine regions.

Although yields have stabilized, the decrease in new plantings indicates a potential reduction in vineyard hectares and overall harvest volumes in the longer term in Europe.

Current situation in South Africa

As of 2023, 35.7% of the hectares of wine grapes in the South African wine industry are older than 20 years, an increase from 15.9% in 2009 according to SAWIS statistics. This follows the long-term trend of declining vineyard hectares and decreased replacement of vines.

In the following series of articles, we will look at South Africa in general and Stellenbosch and Breedekloof in particular as representative regions for analysis into the wine industry as they are good examples of the averages found in South Africa. Stellenbosch represents the Coastal area, focusing on adding value through bottling wine, while Breedekloof represents the interior irrigation area, maintaining profitability through yields. These regions illustrate the two main management approaches in the South African wine industry.

Analyzing the age distribution among the seven most economically important cultivars in South Africa (see Graph 2 below), it is observed that red cultivars are the most affected when looking at a shift towards an older vineyard age distribution. The red vines planted during the red wine boom of the early 2000s are now reaching their traditional end-of-life age of 20 years and are not being replaced by younger vines. In contrast, white cultivars, such as Chenin Blanc and Chardonnay, show a more favorable age distribution.

These trends correlate with observations in international markets, where there has been an increase in demand for white wine in recent years, while red wine has shown sluggish performance with diminishing demand.

Graph 2: Age distribution of seven cultivars in South Africa from 2010-2023 (SAWIS)

When examining the two representative areas, Stellenbosch and Breedekloof, it is evident that Stellenbosch has followed the national trend of declining vineyard hectares (Graph 3). However, similar to the national trend, this decline has not been uniformly distributed between areas. The majority of the reduction in hectares has been concentrated on red wine cultivars, with Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz showing the most significant declines. This observation is further supported by the age distribution data, which indicates that the proportion of red wine vine cultivars older than 20 years has doubled from 2015 to 2022 (Graph 5).

Interestingly, despite the dramatic changes in age distribution and declining hectares, the yield per hectare (Graph 4) presents an unexpected finding. When accounting for seasonal variability, yields have remained relatively stable. The yield averages of these cultivars have decreased by only 5.8%, even though the percentage of vines older than 20 years in this area has increased from 24.7% in 2015 to 53.6% in 2022. This suggests that there are other factors at play that help maintain yields, contrary to industry expectations. Past experience in the industry has shown a steep decline in yields with vines older than 20 years, which was a key factor in establishing the effective economic lifespan of vines at 20 years in South Africa.

Graph 3: The change in Hectares in Stellenbosch from 2015-2022 (SAWIS)	Graph 6: Hectares of seven cultivars in the Breedekloof region from 2015-2022 (SAWIS)
Graph 4: The average yield for seven cultivars in Stellenbosch from 2015-2022 (SAWIS)	Graph 7: The average yield of seven cultivars in the Breedekloof region 2015-2022 (SAWIS).
Graph 5: The age distribution of seven cultivars for vines older than 20 years in the Stellenbosch region from 2015-2022 (SAWIS).	Graph 8: Percentage of vines older than 20 years in the Breedekloof region from 2015-2022 (SAWIS)

The observations made for the Stellenbosch wine region are not unique. The Breedekloof wine region, which traditionally relies much more heavily on yields to remain profitable, has shown a small increase in the total hectares of vines from the measured period of 2015 to 2022 (Graph 6). Despite this heavy reliance on yield, which has historically made older vineyards less economically sustainable, it is noteworthy that yields for all measured cultivars except Merlot have increased from 2015 to 2022 when seasonal variability is taken into account (Graph 7).

This increase in yield occurs against the backdrop of an aging vineyard distribution. Similar to Stellenbosch, five out of the seven measured cultivars in Breedekloof have shown a doubling in vineyards older than 20 years (Graph 8).

The analysis of the Stellenbosch and Breedekloof wine regions, which differ significantly in geography and vineyard management practices, provides valuable insights. Both regions demonstrate that there are additional factors influencing vineyard performance, enabling them to maintain relatively high yields despite a significant shift in age distribution. Nationally, and in these two regions specifically, the hectares of vines older than 20 years have nearly doubled. This observation contradicts the established industry belief that vine yields decrease sharply once vines surpass the 20-year mark, the traditionally accepted age for vine replacement.

Historically, the wine industry has operated under the assumption that older vines would yield less fruit, necessitating their replacement around the 20-year mark. However, the trends observed in Stellenbosch and Breedekloof suggest otherwise in line with newer research. These changes in yield patterns have only become apparent over the past two decades, which is relatively short in the context of the wine industry’s long production cycles. This raises an important question: what are the changes within the industry that have contributed to the increased longevity and sustained yield of these older vines?

Several possible factors might explain this phenomenon. Advances in viticultural practices could be contributing to the health and productivity of older vines. Additionally, the introduction of more resilient vine material and better pest and disease control methods may play a role. These practices help mitigate the stresses that typically reduce the productivity of older vines.

In the coming series of articles we will delve deeper into these factors that have shaped the current make up of our wine industry and might help us in navigating a way to a more sustainable industry.